Each card shows the four-dimension breakdown, the driver behind each score, plus the bull and bear case in one line each.
Most credible commercial FTQC roadmap in the world (Starling 2029, 200 logical qubits via qLDPC); quantum is immaterial to IBM share price.
Technology88
Heron 156-qubit chip with industry-leading layer fidelities; demonstrated qLDPC bivariate-bicycle code (12 logical / 288 physical, Bravyi et al. 2024).
Capital95
Mega-cap parent ($200B+ market cap); R&D budget effectively uncapped relative to peers.
Commercial86
350+ enterprise members on IBM Quantum Platform; multi-year subscriptions in the $1M+ tier. Boeing, Mitsubishi Chemical, Daimler, ExxonMobil among named customers.
Government70
DARPA QBI Stage B; Cleveland Clinic, U Tokyo, US national-lab partnerships. Lower than Quantinuum on US2QC.
Bull
Only credible large-cap with a public 200-logical-qubit roadmap; commercial network effects are real.
Bear
Quantum is immaterial to IBM stock; execution risk on Starling 2029 vs Quantinuum Apollo 2029 is the head-to-head to watch.
Public mega-cap proxy for Quantinuum — ~54% owner ahead of QNT IPO at $15–20B target.
Technology86
Inherits Quantinuum trapped-ion stack — Helios 99.921% 2Q fidelity, 48 logical qubits demonstrated.
Capital100
$140B+ market cap; QNT IPO will mark Honeywell's stake (~$8–11B at midpoint).
Commercial70
Industrial conglomerate with diversified revenue; quantum is immaterial today but optionality value is large.
Government80
Inherits all Quantinuum government wins — DARPA QBI Stage B, US2QC adjacent, UK NQCC.
Bull
IPO closes June 2026 at $20B+, marks HON stake at ~$11B and re-rates the multiple.
Bear
IPO postpones or prices below $15B, compressing the proxy trade; Quantinuum dilution forces mark-down.
Cleanest Q1 2026 print in the cohort — $64.7M (+755% YoY), guidance raised to $260-270M; Oxford Ionics integration accretive.
Technology80
99.99% 2Q fidelity claim (subject to verification scope); AQ 64 hit Sept 2025 ahead of plan; Tempo target ~96 AQ. Acquired Oxford Ionics for $1.075B.
Capital88
~$546M cash; FY25 revenue $130M (+202% YoY); FY26 guidance raised to $235–250M from $225–245M after Q1 beat. Best balance-sheet position among public pure-plays.
Commercial86
Q1 2026 revenue $64.7M (+755% YoY), beat consensus and raised FY26 guidance to $260-270M. RPOs of $470M (+554% YoY) signal multi-year visibility. Diverse customer base (DoE, AFRL, Hyundai, Airbus, AstraZeneca pilots) — least concentrated revenue in the public cohort.
Government70
DARPA QBI Stage B; Air Force Research Lab + DoE Quantum Networks contracts; Oak Ridge installation. Lower than Quantinuum on US2QC.
Bull
Most diversified public pure-play; raised 2026 guide on Q1 beat; only quantum company likely to hit $250M+ revenue in 2026.
Bear
2M-qubit / 2030 narrative is the most aggressive in the cohort — execution gap is widest; trading at ~150× P/S.
Highest-fidelity gate-model machine plus a credible Apollo 2029 fault-tolerant target; IPO is the swing factor for the entire cohort.
Technology92
Helios (Nov 2025) at 99.921% 2Q fidelity — the highest publicly benchmarked on commercial hardware. 48 logical qubits demonstrated.
Capital78
$677M cash pre-IPO; $1.5B target raise; $15-20B IPO valuation roughly 2× Sep 2025 private mark.
Commercial64
$30.9M FY25 revenue (+34% YoY) but 60% concentrated in RIKEN; Q1 2026 dropped 73% YoY on revenue lumpiness.
Government80
DARPA QBI Stage B advancer (Nov 2025). National Security Agreement in place. AUKUS-aligned with strong UK/AU footprint.
Bull
Helios fidelities + Apollo 2029 commitment are the most credible in the cohort; IPO pricing is the swing variable for every quantum stock.
Bear
60% RIKEN concentration; Q1 2026 revenue collapse; Up-C TRA pre-empts ~85% of cash tax savings; isotope single-supplier risk.
US2QC final phase + Azure Quantum aggregator strategy — topological bet remains scientifically contested.
Technology60
Majorana 1 chip announced Feb 2025 (8 topological qubits) — peer reviewers and Nature editorial team publicly disputed claim; underlying 2018 paper retracted. Atom Computing partnership functions as hedge.
Capital100
Mega-cap parent.
Commercial60
Azure Quantum aggregates IonQ, Quantinuum, Rigetti, Pasqal — distribution rather than direct compute revenue.
Government92
US2QC final phase (Stage C equivalent) — joint strongest government validation in the sector.
Bull
US2QC final-phase selection gives Microsoft equal validation depth to PsiQuantum despite topological controversy.
Bear
Topological qubit operation at system scale remains unproven; if Majorana fails, falls back on Atom Computing partnership.
PQC migration + GPS-denied magnetic navigation in one stack — built to monetize quantum's threat and adjacencies before any quantum computer matters.
Technology50
Not a quantum-computing-hardware company. AI + simulation platform + PQC migration tooling (AQtive Guard) + AQNav GPS-denied magnetic-anomaly navigation with 450+ flight hours across USAF, Airbus Acubed, Boeing.
Capital92
$450M+ Series E April 2025 at $5.75B valuation; total funding $950M+. Backers Ray Dalio, Horizon Kinetics, BNP Paribas, Google, NVIDIA.
Commercial75
Revenue not publicly disclosed but reportedly nine-figure with PQC migration deals; major enterprise customers via mandate-driven sales.
Government85
5-year DoW (formerly DoD) CIO agreement Dec 2025 for cryptographic discovery and PQC migration. DIU Transition of Quantum Sensing program Nov 2025.
Bull
NSM-10 PQC migration deadlines drive AQtive Guard into every Fortune 500 / DoD system; AQNav wins a program of record; IPO at $15B+ on real revenue.
Bear
PQC migration is a one-time project not recurring; AQNav stays R&D-shaped; $5.75B valuation overpays for what is essentially a consulting business with a quantum wrapper.
Strongest single technical validation in DARPA US2QC; capital-intensive million-qubit photonic bet with the deepest government backing.
Technology76
Photonic GKP/measurement-based architecture; Omega manufacturable chipset with GlobalFoundries; component-loss budget is the central physics question.
Capital92
~$6B valuation post-March 2025 $750M raise; $940M Australia/Queensland commitment; IQMP (Illinois Quantum Microelectronics Park) construction underway.
Commercial40
No commercial revenue today — strategy is to skip NISQ entirely and ship FTQC at scale. High execution risk on a long horizon.
Government95
US2QC final phase (Stage C equivalent) — the deepest validation any company has received. $22.5M + $10.8M AFRL contracts.
Bull
Government validation depth + capital base unmatched; if photonic FTQC works at scale, the prize is the entire market.
Bear
Zero NISQ revenue means no feedback loop; loss budgets at million-qubit scale remain unsolved; longest payoff horizon in the sector.
Most empirically-validated below-threshold QEC demonstration (Willow); commercial monetization deliberately backseated.
Technology90
Willow 105-qubit chip demonstrated below-threshold surface-code QEC at d=3/5/7 (2024 Nature). Most important QEC result to date.
Capital100
Alphabet parent; effectively uncapped R&D.
Commercial45
Quantum AI is research-mode at Google scale; no significant external customer business analogous to IBM Quantum Platform.
Government55
DARPA QBI Stage A (added Sept 2025) — too late for Nov 2025 Stage B cut. Acquired Atlantic Quantum October 2025.
Bull
Willow result is the strongest empirical FTQC scaling proof anyone has published.
Bear
Late to DARPA QBI; commercial monetization not part of strategy → less direct competitive pressure on revenue-tracking peers.
Europe's on-prem quantum systems vendor — selling boxes today while peers sell roadmaps; SPAC at $1.8B.
Technology70
Superconducting transmon platform; on-prem systems deployed at LRZ, VTT, EuroHPC sites. 2Q fidelity not at Google/IBM tier publicly.
Capital86
$320M Series B Sep 2025 at $1B valuation (Ten Eleven Ventures lead — largest non-US quantum round). SPAC merger Feb 2026 with Real Asset Acquisition Corp at $1.8B — first European quantum on US public markets. Total raised >€600M.
Commercial70
~$35M unaudited 2025 revenue; 21 systems sold to 13 customers — highest unit count of any pure-play (rivals only D-Wave installed base).
Government55
EU Quantum Flagship anchor; multiple EuroHPC hosting contracts (Finland LUMI-Q, Germany, Spain, Poland). Not a DARPA QBI participant.
Bull
SPAC closes at $1.8B with real revenue and 21-unit installed base; IQM becomes the European Quantinuum analog and rides EuroHPC procurement to $200M revenue by 2027.
Bear
On-prem boxes are NISQ-era hardware that obsoletes the moment FTQC arrives; superconducting commoditizes; SPAC trades like Arqit and loses 60% on a 12-month view.
Hardware-agnostic QEC decoder picks-and-shovels — wins regardless of which qubit modality wins.
Technology78
Deltaflow QEC stack and Local Clustering Decoder. December 2025 Nature Communications paper claims 1M error-free operations with 4× fewer qubits. Hardware-agnostic across modalities.
Capital70
$75M Series C 2025, led by Planet First Partners. Cambridge Innovation Capital, Amadeus, UK NSSIF, Altair.
Commercial55
First UK commercial QEC deployment at CentreSquare (with OQC) July 2025; Deltaflow 2 installed at Oak Ridge National Lab Sept 2025 — first dedicated real-time QEC system at a US national lab.
Government80
DARPA QBI participant via three Stage A projects (with Rigetti, Atlantic Quantum, Diraq) — carries forward into Stage B inside Diraq consortium. UK DSIT Quantum Missions Pilot. NSSIF backed.
Bull
Decoders become the bottleneck for every FTQC build; Riverlane becomes the Synopsys of quantum and gets acquired by IBM/NVIDIA at 5–10× revenue.
Bear
Hardware vendors internalize decoders (IBM already has); QEC standards consolidate around open-source; revenue stays research-grant-shaped.
The orchestration layer for the lab. OPX1000 control hardware sits underneath ~280 university and corporate quantum stacks; closest thing to picks-and-shovels in this sector.
Technology70
OPX1000 multi-modality quantum control hardware + Pulse Suite software stack. Hardware-agnostic — runs underneath superconducting, ion, atom, photonic, and NV experiments.
Capital78
~$170M total raised. NVIDIA collaboration on hybrid quantum-classical orchestration. Israeli-anchored cap table.
Commercial75
~280 deployments across academic labs, national labs, and corporate research teams. Estimated revenue range from third-party tracking suggests largest commercial revenue among quantum control vendors. Reseller relationships with multiple modalities.
Government50
Deployed at multiple DOE QIS centers, AFRL, and DARPA-funded labs but not a direct QBI program participant.
Bull
Hardware-agnostic control becomes a $500M+ market on the back of QEC requirements; QM acquired by NVIDIA or a hyperscaler at 8–10× revenue.
Bear
Hyperscalers (NVIDIA CUDA-Q) and quantum vendors (IBM Qiskit Runtime, Quantinuum Solstice) push into native control stacks, squeezing third-party orchestration.
Hardware-agnostic control software + AUKUS PNT prime; picks-and-shovels for whichever modality wins.
Technology60
No qubits — software layer (Fire Opal, Boulder Opal) + quantum-assured navigation (Ironstone Opal). Published 111x positioning accuracy vs high-end INS in GPS-denied flight tests.
Capital70
Series B extended to $113M (total Series B $166M); cumulative >$180M. Private. Salesforce Ventures and In-Q-Tel-adjacent backers.
Commercial62
Software licensed across IBM, Rigetti, IonQ, Diraq stacks. Sensing customers across allied defense.
Government85
AUKUS Pillar 2 anchor — Australian DoD prime for quantum-assured navigation, shared with US/UK. DARPA $24.4M sensor award. UK NQCC partner.
Bull
GPS-denied navigation becomes a hard DoD requirement; Q-CTRL wins program-of-record across one AUKUS service branch.
Bear
Software margins compress as hardware vendors internalize control stacks; PNT contracts stay R&D-shaped not procurement-shaped.
Europe's neutral-atom champion with real bookings; SPAC merger announced at ~$2B pre-money.
Technology72
~100+ atom analog/digital platform; FTQC roadmap published 2025. No headline 2Q fidelity — fidelity disclosure is the weakest part of the tech narrative. Co-founded by Nobel laureate Alain Aspect.
Capital74
SPAC with Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp II announced March 2026 at ~$2.0B pre-money; potential $600M+ proceeds. Strategic backers Temasek, Wa'ed, ARIA.
Commercial58
~$80M booked and awarded business per SPAC deck; ~100% YoY unaudited revenue growth in 2025. On-prem systems delivered to GENCI, Jülich, Aramco. AWS Braket access.
Government55
EU Quantum Flagship participant; France 2030 PROQCIMA finalist; multiple EuroHPC hosting wins. Not in DARPA QBI Stage A or B.
Bull
SPAC closes H2 2026; neutral atoms emerge as #2 modality behind ions; Pasqal locks in sovereign EU buyer base.
Bear
Public listing forces fidelity disclosure that lags ion peers; SPAC trades down post-deSPAC like QUBT.
Leading neutral-atom path; Microsoft partnership delivered 24 logical qubits in a packaged system.
Technology78
1,180-atom Phoenix system (largest publicly demonstrated array); 24 logical qubits in Microsoft-packaged on-prem unit (Jan 2025); erasure conversion architecture.
Capital70
Series C $60M+ (2025); private valuation undisclosed publicly. Microsoft commercial pull is a partial capital substitute.
Commercial35
Pre-revenue commercially; first on-prem delivery (with Microsoft) is the proof point. Mid-circuit measurement still ramping.
Government75
DARPA QBI Stage B; prior US2QC pilot relationship. Strong DOE QIS center collaborations.
Bull
Microsoft logical-qubit packaging is the most credible neutral-atom commercialization path.
Bear
Correlated to Microsoft's topological strategy — if Majorana 1 fails, the joint roadmap takes collateral damage.
Highest ARR of any "quantum" company — but the quantum link is thin; this is now classical-AI-compression with a quantum badge.
Technology40
Tensor-network methods (originally quantum-inspired finance/optimization), pivoted to LLM compression via CompactifAI — compresses LLMs up to 95% while retaining performance. The quantum link is increasingly thin.
Capital85
€189M / $215M Series B June 2025 at >$500M post-money (5× step-up from $108M Series A March 2024). In talks Feb 2026 for €500M at €1.5B. Backers Bullhound, HP Tech Ventures, Forgepoint, CDP, Santander Climate, Quantonation, Toshiba.
Commercial90
€100M ARR reported Jan 2026 — by far the highest ARR of any "quantum" company. Driven almost entirely by CompactifAI not quantum.
Government35
Spanish PERTE quantum funding; EU Quantum Flagship participant.
Bull
€1.5B valuation closes; €100M ARR doubles in 2026; Multiverse exits to NVIDIA/HP at $5B+ as the AI cost-compression standard.
Bear
CompactifAI faces commoditization from open-source quantization; €1.5B valuation pre-bakes the entire upside; quantum origin becomes a liability not an asset.
Algorithmic fault-tolerance breakthrough with Harvard plus Stage B advancement — most cited neutral-atom technical milestones.
Technology82
Gemini reconfigurable array; 48-logical-qubit experiment with Harvard (Bluvstein 2023); algorithmic FT demonstrations 2.14× below threshold.
Capital65
~$230M total funding disclosed; QuEra has remained capital-efficient relative to PsiQuantum.
Commercial30
Aquila cloud access via AWS Braket; few named enterprise wins; revenue scale not publicly disclosed.
Government75
DARPA QBI Stage B; close DARPA / DOE / Harvard collaborations.
Bull
Best technical-publication track record in neutral atoms; reconfigurable arrays enable new QEC topologies.
Bear
Commercial scale not publicly demonstrated; private valuation likely modest vs peer set.
Only quantum company with a real sensing revenue line funding the compute bet; SPAC merger at $1.8B announced.
Technology65
Strontium neutral-atom computing + quantum sensing/PNT + atomic clocks. Roadmap targets logical qubits via dual-species architecture. Headline 2Q fidelity not disclosed publicly.
Capital78
$100M Series C June 2025 (Glynn, Counterpoint, S32, SAIC). SPAC with Churchill Capital Corp X announced September 2025 at $1.8B valuation, ~$540M expected gross proceeds.
Commercial60
~$30M revenue 2024; $200M+ customer pipeline disclosed. NVIDIA partner. Sensing/clock business is real revenue today.
Government40
Heavy DoD/IC exposure via SAIC investor. DARPA QBI Stage A only — not on Stage B list.
Bull
Sensing/PNT becomes $100M+ business by 2027 on AUKUS/DoD wins; cleanest unit economics in the sector and optionality on neutral-atom compute.
Bear
Two-product complexity dilutes focus; neutral-atom compute falls behind Pasqal/QuEra/Atom; post-SPAC trading punishes lack of fidelity numbers.
UK's national silicon-spin champion with the cleanest manufacturing story in the Stage B field; $160M Series C.
Technology65
MOS-based silicon spin qubits. September 2025: delivered first full-stack silicon CMOS quantum computer to UK NQCC. GlobalFoundries manufacturing partnership.
Capital80
$160M Series C May 2026 — largest European silicon-spin round to date. EU Scaleup Europe Fund (first investment), DCVC, Kembara, British Business Bank, Oxford Science Enterprises, Bosch Ventures.
Commercial30
NQCC deployment revenue; partnerships across UK QC testbed.
Government80
DARPA QBI Stage B Nov 2025. UK NQCC anchor tenant. Innovate UK / DSIT Quantum Missions funded.
Bull
$160M war chest plus NQCC anchor plus GlobalFoundries puts Quantum Motion ahead of Diraq and Quobly on industrial scaling.
Bear
Silicon-spin modality lags fundamentally on logical qubits; $160M burns fast at full-stack scope; "first full-stack" milestone overstates a small-qubit-count system.
Largest Q1 2026 revenue beat in the cohort ($15M, +509% YoY); first US university owned-system sale to FAU. Guidance raised.
Technology50
Advantage2 ~4,400-qubit annealer (NB: annealing qubits, not gate-model). 83% GAAP gross margins — only profitable-on-gross-margin quantum vendor.
Capital76
Cash position rebuilt to ~$325M post-2025 ATM and registered direct offerings. FY26 guidance raised to $80–95M (from $70–85M) after Q1 beat.
Commercial76
Q1 2026 revenue $15.0M (+509% YoY); $20M FAU system sale (first US university to own rather than rent a full quantum system). FY25 revenue $24.6M (+179%). NatWest deployed.
Government35
Florida Atlantic University acquired its own Advantage2 (~$20M, first US university owned). Lower government program exposure.
Bull
Only quantum vendor with positive GAAP gross margins; growth rate is the highest among public names; Q1 print de-risks 2026 trajectory.
Bear
Annealing roadmap diverges from gate-model FTQC narrative; not a beneficiary of QBI / FTQC milestones in the same way.
Networked-FTQC contrarian bet with Microsoft alignment as the optionality; Stage B advancer.
Technology70
Optically-linked silicon T-centre spin qubits at telecom wavelength; modular "Entanglement First" architecture for networked FTQC. First electrically-injected single-photon source in silicon via T-centres. 2Q fidelity not headlined.
Capital78
$200M final close at $2B valuation April 2025. BCI lead; Microsoft strategic backer; BDC.
Commercial25
Pre-revenue; Microsoft Azure quantum networking partner.
Government80
DARPA QBI Stage B Nov 2025; in running for up to $316M total QBI dollars if it reaches Stage C.
Bull
T-centre modularity becomes the only credible path to million-qubit systems; Microsoft acquires or anchors a strategic round at 3–5x.
Bear
T-centre yields stay too low for commercial wafers; Microsoft's Majorana win makes Photonic redundant inside Azure portfolio.
China's leading commercial quantum vendor — state-backed superconducting platform with limited Western technical verification.
Technology62
Wukong 72-qubit superconducting platform; updated processors disclosed through 2024–2025 with published fidelities that have not been independently verified by Western benchmarking bodies. Domestic FTQC roadmap parallels the US/EU cohort.
Capital75
State-backed via Hefei National Lab and Chinese strategic-emerging-industries funding. Capital access is not the constraint.
Commercial55
Reported domestic revenue in the tens of millions of USD equivalent; customer base anchored on Chinese national labs, ministries, and state-affiliated enterprises. Limited Western customer access.
Government30
Anchor of China's state quantum strategy; outside the DARPA / EU / AUKUS framework that organizes the rest of this score and is therefore scored conservatively on government dimension despite domestic backing.
Bull
China's sovereign quantum program runs through Origin and produces a parallel commercial track that Western investors cannot directly access — value capture is real but geopolitically constrained.
Bear
Western capital flows and technology transfer are increasingly restricted; Origin's technical claims are difficult to verify; not a credible Stage C analogue under any Western-centric scoring framework.
Most capital-efficient bosonic claim in the field (1:1 physical:logical) — Stage B advancer with limited cap table.
Technology75
Multi-mode bosonic qubits in superconducting cavities; claims 1:1 physical-to-logical ratio (single-cavity error correction) — most aggressive overhead claim in the sector. 2Q fidelity not yet published at scale.
Capital50
Private. Smaller cap table than peers. DARPA QBI Stage B contract worth ~$5M.
Commercial22
Pre-revenue or near-zero disclosed.
Government70
DARPA QBI Stage B Nov 2025 (confirmed). Canadian National Quantum Strategy beneficiary.
Bull
Stage B validation forces revaluation; 1:1 ratio survives DARPA scrutiny; Nord becomes cheapest path to 100 logical qubits and an acquisition target.
Bear
1:1 ratio is marketing — survives in toy systems, breaks under realistic noise; thin cap table forces down-round or fire-sale before Stage C.
The thesis bet that scalable quantum runs through a CMOS fab, not a custom one; Stage B with imec partnership.
Technology68
Silicon spin qubits in standard 300mm CMOS via imec. Late 2025: >99% 2Q gate fidelity on randomly-selected industrially-fabricated devices — credible industrial-fab milestone.
Capital50
A$20M NRFC investment 2025; Main Sequence Ventures, Quantonation backers. Total raised modest vs European silicon-spin peers.
Government80
DARPA QBI Stage B Nov 2025, leading Australia-UK-US consortium with Riverlane. AUKUS-adjacent. Australian National Quantum Strategy.
Bull
99% 2Q on a foundry process is a watershed; GlobalFoundries/imec replication makes Diraq the silicon-spin standard.
Bear
Silicon spin remains years behind ions/atoms on logical qubits; thin cap table forces dilution; Quobly/Quantum Motion outraise on same physics.
The compiler/IDE layer for quantum — wins if and only if developer-facing quantum programming becomes a real market.
Technology50
High-level quantum algorithm synthesis platform — Qmod language, automatic circuit compilation. Hardware-agnostic. No qubits.
Capital76
$110M Series C May 2025 led by Entrée Capital (Norwest, NightDragon, Hamilton Lane, Samsung Next, HSBC, Wing) — largest-ever quantum software round. Plus prior $30M from AMD, Qualcomm, IonQ. Total ~$173M.
Commercial50
Customers include BMW, Rolls-Royce, Citi, Comcast, Toshiba, SoftBank. Partnerships with NVIDIA, Microsoft, AWS.
Government35
Israeli Innovation Authority. No DARPA QBI direct participation.
Bull
Classiq becomes the Verilog of quantum; enterprise pre-quantum spend ramps; acquired by NVIDIA or Microsoft at 10× revenue.
Bear
Quantum hardware vendors push their own SDKs (Qiskit, Cirq, Quantinuum SDK); Classiq's neutral-layer pitch erodes; enterprise revenue stays POC-shaped.
Sole photonic Stage B advancer outside US2QC; loss budgets at scale remain the central technical question.
Technology68
Aurora modular photonic platform (12 squeezed-light chips across 13km fiber); 60% optical loss reduction 2025; HyperLight TFLN partnership.
Capital50
Public via 2024 listing; $294M resale-share registration in May 2026 sent stock down 67% premarket — float-management cautionary tale.
Commercial18
Strawberry Fields software platform with developer mindshare; commercial revenue scale not disclosed.
Government70
DARPA QBI Stage B; deep Canadian government / NRC / DRDC ties.
Bull
Photonics naturally enables networking and lower-temperature operation; 2029 FTQC commitment matches Quantinuum.
Bear
Component-loss budget remains the dominant technical risk; recent float management cratered the stock — repeat risk.
The atomic-precision donor science bet — Michelle Simmons's research moat; Stage B with smaller cap table.
Technology60
Atomic-precision donor qubits in silicon via PAQMan process — bottom-up STM-fabricated devices. Distinct from Diraq's top-down CMOS approach. Logical-qubit demos not yet at Stage B-rival scale.
Capital45
AUD$20M NRFC investment 2025; smaller raised total vs peers. Australian government / UNSW anchor. Founder Michelle Simmons.
Government75
DARPA QBI Stage B Nov 2025. Australian National Reconstruction Fund anchor. AUKUS-adjacent.
Bull
PAQMan donor qubits demonstrate uniquely long coherence; Stage B validates the bottom-up path; SQC becomes a strategic AUKUS asset.
Bear
Bottom-up STM doesn't scale to manufacturing; donor approach falls 5–10 years behind top-down CMOS; thin cap table forces consolidation.
French photonic quantum vendor with indistinguishable-single-photon source IP — niche but European-sovereign-backed.
Technology58
Photonic platform built on Quandela's indistinguishable-single-photon sources. 3- and 6-photon experiments published. Ascella cloud platform for application development. FTQC roadmap less detailed than PsiQuantum or Xanadu.
Capital50
~$80M cumulative raised through 2024–2025. French government PROQCIMA program backing. OVHcloud strategic relationship.
Commercial30
Cloud access via Ascella; some on-prem deployments at European HPC centers. Revenue scale not publicly disclosed.
Government55
France 2030 PROQCIMA finalist. EU Quantum Flagship participant. Not in DARPA QBI Stage A or B.
Bull
PROQCIMA win supplies €100M+ of French sovereign capital; Quandela becomes the European photonic alternative to PsiQuantum at a defensible niche valuation.
Bear
Photonic FTQC timeline is 2030+ regardless; Quandela out-raised 3:1 by PsiQuantum; remains a research-anchored business until that changes.
Highest-conviction Western bet on bosonic cat-qubit codes; not advanced to QBI Stage B in November 2025.
Technology72
Cat-qubit (bosonic) architecture with bias-noise structure suppressing bit-flips. Boson 4 chip Sept 2025: bit-flip lifetime >1 hour. "Elevator Codes" claim ~15:1 physical-to-logical ratio — best published if it holds at scale.
Capital62
€104M Series B Jan 2025; additional €130M April 2026; cumulative >€230M. 200+ employees. Bpifrance, Future French Champions backers.
Commercial22
Limited disclosed revenue; cloud access via OVHcloud. LANL partnership on materials.
Government28
DARPA QBI Stage A — eliminated, did not advance to Stage B Nov 2025. France PROQCIMA finalist. EU Quantum Flagship.
Bull
Elevator Codes ratio holds at 100+ logical qubits; Alice & Bob skips the 1000:1 overhead trap; France pulls a national-champion exit at $2B+ by 2028.
Bear
Cat qubits stay an elegant lab demo; DARPA QBI Stage A elimination reflects roadmap thinness; PROQCIMA dollars run out before commercial advantage.
Public pure-play with $590M cash and the cleanest negative differential signal in the sector — DARPA QBI Stage A only.
Technology52
Ankaa-3 84-qubit chip; 99% 2Q fidelity on best gates. Behind IBM/Google/Quantinuum on layer fidelity and modular architecture.
Capital80
~$590M cash; $6.3B market cap; ATM offerings have funded the balance sheet. Long runway but narrative-driven valuation.
Commercial18
$7.1M FY25 revenue (-34% YoY) — only public quantum company with declining revenue. Trades at ~890× P/S.
Government25
Stage A only; did not advance to DARPA QBI Stage B in November 2025. AFRL contracts continuing but no Stage C path.
Bull
Strong balance sheet provides time to execute; meme-stock dynamics keep multiple high relative to fundamentals.
Bear
~890× trailing P/S against declining revenue; missed Stage B cut; commercial traction is the worst in the public cohort.
NV-diamond room-temperature niche play — smaller TAM but unique form factor that could matter for edge deployment.
Technology48
Nitrogen-vacancy diamond qubits operating at room temperature. 5-qubit cards demonstrated; scale far behind cryogenic platforms but uniquely portable.
Capital45
~AUD $20M Series A and follow-on. Quantonation, Main Sequence Ventures, Investible backers.
Commercial25
Pre-revenue at meaningful scale; pilot deployments and educational kits.
Government55
Australian National Quantum Strategy beneficiary; AUKUS-adjacent through Australian-side activity. Not a DARPA QBI participant.
Bull
NV-diamond becomes the only credible quantum form factor for edge deployment (vehicles, sensors, submarines); a unique niche emerges where cryogenic platforms cannot compete.
Bear
Room-temperature NV-diamond modality may simply lose to optically-pumped magnetometers and conventional sensors for every real edge application; FTQC at scale is not on the realistic roadmap.
France's silicon-spin entry leveraging CEA-Leti's fab as a moat; PROQCIMA finalist, out-raised by peers.
Technology58
Silicon spin qubits on 300mm FD-SOI via CEA-Leti. 15+ years of CEA/CNRS research base, 40+ patent families. Targeting 100-qubit Q100T chip by 2027.
Capital40
€21M (~$23.7M) financing 2025; Quantonation, Bpifrance backers; France 2030 PROQCIMA participant. Smaller cap table than Quantum Motion / Diraq.
Commercial12
Pre-revenue; Inria, TNO collaborations.
Government55
PROQCIMA finalist, EU SPINS pilot line participant. Not in DARPA QBI Stage A or B.
Bull
PROQCIMA shortlist hands Quobly €100M+ over 5 years; CEA-Leti gives it a manufacturing edge Quantum Motion/Diraq can't match in Europe.
Bear
Out-raised 8:1 by Quantum Motion on same physics; no DARPA validation; 2027 100-qubit target slips into 2029 and France consolidates around Pasqal + Alice & Bob.
The photonic dark horse with a deterministic-photon-source story that could leapfrog PsiQuantum's overhead problem.
Technology60
Photonic FTQC platform using ORIGIN engine; deterministic photon source approach intended to avoid PsiQuantum's probabilistic-gate overhead. Pre-hardware demo at scale — no published 2Q fidelity.
Capital48
~$77M cumulative including $50M Series A. Backers Eclipse, Standard Investments, Pitango, Grove, Dell Technologies Capital, 10D. Potential beneficiary of the planned $200M US-Israel quantum/AI fund.
Government30
Israeli Innovation Authority. Cited as potential JV partner with PsiQuantum in proposed US-Israel fund. No DARPA QBI participation.
Bull
ORIGIN engine produces deterministic photons at demo scale; PsiQuantum partners or acquires; Quantum Source becomes the photonic source IP standard.
Bear
Photonic FTQC is a 2030+ story regardless; cap table too thin for the capex; Israeli funding stays research-grade not procurement-grade.
Pivoting to commercial photonic sales; revenue base remains minimal at ~$2.5B market cap.
Technology35
Photonic systems for entropy/random-number generation and limited optimization workloads. Modest gate-model contribution.
Capital55
~$2.5B market cap supported on minimal revenue; equity issuance has funded operations.
Commercial14
Q1 2026 revenue $3.7M (+9,364% YoY off near-zero base); commercial photonic chip orders growing but scale unproven.
Government18
No DARPA QBI participation. Limited federal contracting.
Bull
Pivot to commercial photonic hardware sales is the bull case if margins hold.
Bear
Multiple is extreme relative to revenue; no DARPA validation; tech score lags peers materially.
A turnaround story that needs at least two more quarters of revenue evidence before it's investable.
Technology35
Quantum/classical generative AI software (Orquestra platform legacy); no hardware. Currently rebuilding product portfolio after October 2024 collapse.
Capital35
Was public (ZPTAQ pre-collapse); recapped private-equity-style. $3M bridge, $10M+ debt-to-equity conversion, $1.25M raise Nov 2025 at 3× step-up, $15M oversubscribed financing April 2026 led by Triatomic Capital. Regained SEC compliance Dec 2025.
Commercial15
Customer base hollowed out in the gap year; rebuilding.
Government25
Historical DARPA/IARPA grant participant; current status reduced.
Bull
Recapped Zapata Quantum monetizes the Orquestra IP into a focused quantum-software niche; Triatomic capital buys 18 months of runway.
Bear
Reputational damage from the collapse is unrecoverable with enterprise buyers; Classiq, Multiverse, Riverlane now own the software lanes Zapata pioneered.
Quantum-safe encryption (PQC layer), not quantum compute — different category than the rest of the cohort.
Technology28
Symmetric-key delivery network and PQC enablement; not a quantum hardware company.
Capital35
~$235M market cap; modest balance sheet.
Commercial12
~$530K TTM revenue; strong intel-community relationships but limited commercial scale.
Government20
UK MoD and US DOD partnerships; not a DARPA QBI program participant.
Bull
Pure-play public exposure to the PQC migration narrative; first-mover in encryption-as-a-service for post-quantum era.
Bear
Revenue under $1M and not in the QBI evaluation set; misclassified in the public quantum cohort by many investors.