Analyst note · Annealing
D-Wave Quantum Annealing
Quantum annealing veteran now also doing gate-based via Quantum Circuits acquisition — only player with a useful supremacy claim still uncontested.
Quantum annealing veteran now also doing gate-based via Quantum Circuits acquisition — only player with a useful supremacy claim still uncontested.
— Ledger Desk · analyst thesis
Bull case
▲ upsideMarch 2024 quantum supremacy claim on a useful problem remains unchallenged 2+ years later. Q1 2026 bookings of $33.4M (+1,994% YoY) and RPO of $42.4M signal genuine commercial inflection. Fortune 100 QCaaS contract + Florida Atlantic $20M system sale show enterprise traction. Quantum Circuits acquisition gives dual annealing + gate-based optionality. NVIDIA integration triggered a 46% single-day surge.
Bear case
▼ downsideHeadline Q1 revenue declined 81% YoY ($2.9M vs $15M) — distorted comp but retail will see the print. Quantum Circuits doubled opex with negligible near-term revenue. Annealing is increasingly viewed as a niche modality vs gate-based for the largest commercial use cases (chemistry, materials). 30+ year-old company finally booking real revenue is a story that has cried wolf before.
Ledger Score · D-Wave Quantum
The Ledger reads cautious
Largest Q1 2026 revenue beat in the cohort ($15M, +509% YoY); first US university owned-system sale to FAU. Guidance raised.
Largest Q1 2026 revenue beat in the cohort ($15M, +509% YoY); first US university owned-system sale to FAU. Guidance raised.
Technology
50
Capital
76
Commercial
76
Government
35
Components are independently scored and weighted. See methodology.
Recent · 3 stories tracked
What we're watching
- 01businesswire·May 12, 2026Mixed
D-Wave Q1 Revenue Falls 81% on Lumpy Comp; Bookings Surge 1,994% to $33.4M
- 02quantum insider·May 8, 2026Mixed
Quantinuum Files S-1 Targeting $20B+ IPO Under Ticker QNT
- 03nvidia·Apr 16, 2026Bullish
NVIDIA Launches "Ising" Open AI Models for Quantum Calibration; Quantum Stocks Rally
A profile is a snapshot of an argument, not a verdict. The Ledger updates the score nightly; the thesis we revisit only when the facts change.
— analyst-note conventions