revised quarterly
What the Ledger expects
A four-horizon read on the quantum economy. Numbers are revisable; the shape of the regime breaks is not.
Forecasts are most useful where the curve bends. We mark the bends; the levels follow.
— the editorial premise of this page
The curve below is the Ledger's central estimate of sector revenue, annotated where we expect regime breaks: chemistry pilots → production (2028), PQC migration peak (2030), logical-qubit utility threshold (2032). Each break is a thesis, not a prediction; the absolute levels follow once the break either holds or doesn't.
Below the chart we read the next ten years through four horizons. Each section names the call we make and the catalysts we'll be watching to update it.
Quarterly · The Earnings Desk
What the public cohort actually reported this quarter ›
Every quantum-exposed public earnings call distilled in 48 hours — headline metrics, what changed, and the read-through. The numbers underneath the forecast below.
The bridge
Quarterly prints anchor the near term; the forecast below extends the same series out to 2036 with three regime breaks that re-rate the entire curve.
Read the calls. Then read the chart.
2024 → 2034 · central estimate with bands
Where the revenue is going
2029 · regime break
Logical-qubit milestone window
IBM Starling and Quantinuum Apollo both target FTQC delivery this year; one hit unlocks the commercial inflection.
2030 · regime break
NISQ era closes (per BCG framework)
Broad quantum advantage phase begins; revenue mix shifts from government-backed to commercial cloud.
2033 · regime break
DARPA utility-scale verification deadline
Stage C performers must demonstrate industrially useful operation. Independent-buyer validation drives next capital cycle.
1y · 2027
One year 2027
A sentiment reset. Sector revenue still doubles — the listed cohort still trades on roadmaps, not numbers.
— one year out, the call we make
- 01
DARPA QBI Stage C decisions (Q4 2026) reshape the cap table by Q2
- 02
Quantinuum IPO prices and trades; sets the comp for the next two pure-play listings
- 03
First production logical-qubit workloads outside the IBM/Quantinuum customer set
- 04
EU sovereign procurement starts spending against the 2024 budget cycle
3y · 2029
Three year 2029
The roadmap-versus-execution gap closes. Names that promised utility-scale FTQC by 2029 either deliver or are repriced.
— three years out, the call we make
- 01
IBM, Quantinuum, and Xanadu hit (or visibly miss) their 2029 fault-tolerance milestones
- 02
PsiQuantum first utility computer brought online at IQMP — independent IV&V on every claim
- 03
PQC migration peaks: FedRAMP & NIS2 deadlines force a global crypto refresh, drives a hardware cycle
- 04
First chemistry pilots clear pharma’s threshold for in-house decision support
5y · 2031
Five year 2031
The sector splits. Two or three names own utility-scale; the long tail consolidates into application software and sovereign hardware niches.
— five years out, the call we make
- 01
First commercial fault-tolerant systems cross ~1,000 logical qubits at useful fidelity
- 02
Quantum simulation revenue overtakes hardware-access revenue as the largest segment
- 03
Modality convergence: one or two architectures cover most enterprise workloads; the rest are R&D
- 04
Independent error-correction stack vendors (Riverlane class) emerge as a discrete category
10y · 2036
Ten year 2036
The DARPA 2033 utility-scale verification has either succeeded or not, and that single fact dominates everything else.
— ten years out, the call we make
- 01
If 2033 was met: quantum becomes an enterprise compute primitive, like GPU acceleration in 2018
- 02
If 2033 slipped: revenue plateaus at the simulation + sensing + PQC floor (~$30B / yr)
- 03
Cryptographically relevant Shor remains the most-watched and most-unlikely threshold
- 04
Sovereign demand exceeds private demand for the first time since 2025
A horizon is not a target. It is a frame we use to reread the same cohort with different time constants.