Four roadmaps · one quantum future

Shipped on schedule for five consecutive years; publishes peer-reviewed papers ahead of marketing. The reference standard.

1. 2024Heron R2 (156Q) — shipped
2. 2025Loon — qLDPC c-couplers tested
3. 2026Nighthawk (120Q square-lattice) → Kookaburra (modular)
4. 2027Cockatoo — interconnect at scale
5. 2029Starling — ~200 logical qubits, 100M ops
6. 2033Blue Jay — 2,000 logical qubits, 1B ops

Best physics in the field. Underpromise on dates, overdeliver on physics. Six-milestone framework is the most rigorous.

1. 2024Willow — sub-threshold logical qubit (Milestone 2 of 6)
2. 2025Quantum Echoes — first verifiable advantage claim
3. 2026Willow Early Access Program; neutral-atom track expansion
4. 2027Long-lived logical qubit (Milestone 3)
5. 2029-2030Million-qubit Shor-class machine

Best physics on fidelity; aggressive on 2030 universal FTQC promise. Helios shipped roughly on schedule.

1. 2025Helios — 98 physical / 48 logical at 99.99% SPAM
2. 2027Sol — hundreds of physical, 2D grid, 10K-op circuits
3. 2029-2030Apollo — universal, fully fault-tolerant
4. 2033Lumos — utility-scale machine

Nov 2024 demonstration of 24 logical qubits was real, peer-reviewed, reproducible. Microsoft partnership is the most concrete near-term logical-qubit story.

1. 2024Phoenix operational; 24 logical qubits with Microsoft
2. 2026-2027Magne delivered to Denmark/Novo Nordisk (50 logical from ~1,200 phys)
3. 202810,000+ physical / 100+ logical

Ships on time. Only credible non-US/Chinese superconducting player. Finnish VTT contracts are real revenue with real dates.

1. 2025Resonance Star in production
2. 2026150-qubit Radiance to VTT Finland
3. 2027300-qubit Radiance (two modules)
4. 2030Hundreds of logical qubits (Apollo)

1-hour bit-flip lifetime achievement is genuinely impressive. But no end-to-end logical qubit shown. Boson → Graphene leap is huge.

1. 2024Boson chips (single cat qubit, >7-min bit-flip lifetime)
2. 2026Helium — first logical qubit below threshold
3. 2028Lithium — multi-logical-qubit + corrected logical gate
4. 2030Graphene — 100 high-fidelity logical qubits

Hit 2024 milestone and Harvard 48-logical-qubit demo. 2026 10K/100 target looks aspirational — no 3K-qubit intermediate machine shown.

1. 2024256 physical / 10 logical — shipped (Aquila)
2. 20253,000 physical / 30 logical with magic state distillation
3. 202610,000 physical / 100 logical

Historically slipped milestones and aggressively redefined metrics. SkyWater deal sound but adds execution risk unrelated to physics.

1. 2025Tempo — 99.99% 2Q fidelity on barium (Oxford Ionics)
2. 2026SkyWater acquisition closes; first 256Q chip-based system to Cambridge
3. 2027Forte Enterprise + photonic interconnect prototypes
4. 20302M physical / 80K logical qubits (networked)

Honest about 2024 → 2025 slip (10K-by-2026 became 2028). Pivoting to problem-specific machines — commercial pragmatism or lowering the bar.

1. 2025Orion Gamma — 140+ qubits
2. 2026250-qubit problem-specific machine
3. 2027Vela — 200+ qubits
4. 2028Centaurus — 10,000 qubits "early FTQC"
5. 2029Lyra — impactful FTQC

Real annealing business with real revenue. Gate-model bet via QCI acquisition is technically sound but 2026 ship is aggressive.

1. 2025Advantage2 (~4,400 qubits) in production
2. 2026Initial gate-model system in market (via QCI)
3. 2028~175-qubit dual-rail system
4. 20301,000-qubit dual-rail / 10 logical qubits
5. 2032100 logical qubits — "initial quantum utility"

Badly missed earlier milestones in 2022-2024 but stabilized through 2025. The 108-qubit chiplet is a real product. Roadmap is modest — welcome discipline.

1. 2026Cepheus-1-108Q — 12 chiplets, 99.1% 2Q (target 99.5% later 2026)
2. 2027-2028Scaling beyond 1,000 qubits via chiplet architecture
3. 2030+FTQC path

Aurora was a real achievement but at 12 qubits the leap to 500 logical by 2030 is enormous. 2028 FTQC is more aggressive than IBM's.

1. 2025Aurora — 12 qubits, 4 racks, 35 chips, 13km fiber, room-temp
2. 2026Listed on Nasdaq/TSX as XNDU
3. 2028Fault tolerance
4. 2029-2030Up to 500 logical qubits

Boldest bet in the industry. Skip NISQ, go straight to million-qubit FTQC. But no intermediate machine demonstrated. Brisbane delayed.

1. 2025Omega chipset announced; $1B Series E at $7B
2. 2026Brisbane building complete (was originally 2027 target)
3. 2027-2028Chicago + Brisbane hardware install
4. 2029-20301M physical qubits / utility-scale FTQC

Largest credibility gap in the industry. 2018 underlying Nature paper retracted. 2025 Majorana 1 announcement met with peer skepticism. Hedge with Atom Computing tells you what they internally believe.

1. 2025Majorana 1 — 8-qubit tetron chip (contested)
2. 20274x2 tetron array for QED on 2 logical qubits
3. 202927x13 tetron array for QEC
4. 2027-2029"Practical quantum computers"

Multiple validated field demos on defense platforms; A$38M DARPA RoQS award is one of the largest quantum-sensing contracts globally.

1. 2024Ironstone Opal airborne — 111× INS accuracy in GPS-denied trials
2. 2025DARPA RoQS Phase 1 award, A$38M / US$24.4M (30 months)
3. 2025MV Sycamore RAN sea trials — 144 hours continuous data
4. 2027-28RoQS Phase 2 — operational platform integration

Partners: Lockheed Martin (RoQS sub), Royal Australian Navy, DARPA, UK MoD

World-first submarine optical clock; only public-equity pure-play quantum sensing + computing dual-track.

1. 2024Tiqker commercial launch
2. 2025World-first quantum optical clock on Royal Navy XV Excalibur autonomous submarine
3. 2025Sqale 100-qubit neutral-atom system delivered to UK NQCC
4. 2026SPAC merger with CCCX closed → NYSE listing as INFQ
5. 2027-28Tiqker volume production for AUKUS PNT

Partners: Royal Navy, MSubs, NQCC, US DoD

Space-validated; technology de-risked through NGA peer-reviewed MagQuest competition.

1. 2025NGA MagQuest Phase 4a — $1.55M prize + qualification
2. 2026Falcon 9 Transporter-16 launch via Spire CubeSat (March 30)
3. 2026On-orbit data collection complete; NOAA/NASA Goddard evaluation
4. 2030Operational NGA acquisition target for World Magnetic Model

Partners: Spire Global, NGA, NOAA NCEI, NASA Goddard

First commercial rackmount optical clock; already shipping revenue product.

1. 2023Evergreen-30 product launch announced
2. 2024First customer deliveries
3. 2024-25DoD timing / GNSS-resilience deployments expand
4. 2026-27Next-generation reduced-SWaP variant

Partners: US Navy, data center operators, undisclosed DoD

Boeing 2024 GPS-free flight test was the seminal cold-atom INS validation.

1. 2024Boeing 6-axis quantum IMU GPS-free flight test
2. 2025Named QuINS subcontractor under Lockheed Martin
3. 2025-28DARPA Transformational Quantum Systems milestones
4. 2027+USGS + oil-and-gas gravimetry deployments

Partners: Boeing, Lockheed Martin, USGS, oil-and-gas majors

Clinical and military pilots underway; clear regulatory pathway. £3.8M Series A April 2026.

1. 2024Oxford OHBA install
2. 2026Mobile MEG for blast-exposure (UK MoD) operational
3. 2026€4.3M Series A led by Guinness Ventures
4. 2027-29UK/US clinical approval pathway (epilepsy, MS, Parkinson's, dementia)

Partners: UK MoD (DSTL), Epilepsy Institute (£14M consortium), Oxford OHBA

De-facto standard component supplier to the OPM-MEG industry.

1. 2024QZFM Gen-3 launch — <4 fT/√Hz, 30% smaller
2. 2025-26Neuro-1 integrated system launch
3. 2026>500 sensors deployed at 40+ clinical sites globally

Partners: Cerca, FieldLine, SickKids, Princeton, Boys Town, University of Zurich

Only commercial-industrial absolute quantum gravimeter on market; multi-year customer deployments.

1. 2022-24Mt. Etna year-long field campaign — volcanology
2. 2024-26Underground mapping commercial expansion
3. 2027+European sovereign sensing positioning

Partners: INGV (Italy), European geological surveys, DGA (France), CNES

Largest deployed QKD installed base globally; now backed by IonQ public-market financing.

1. 2017Korean 800km QKD network with SK Telecom
2. 2025Acquisition by IonQ closed — ~$250M, ~300 patents transferred
3. 2026+Integration with IonQ networking and Cisco/Atom distributed compute

Partners: SK Telecom, Korean MoD, Swiss banks, ~60-country footprint

Long-distance and high-rate QKD records; industrial manufacturing depth.

1. 2021600+ km TF-QKD record (dual-band stabilization)
2. 2023-25Multiplexed QKD over standard telecom dark fiber deployments
3. 2025-26Gigabit-class lab key-rate demonstrations
4. 2027+Quantum-repeater R&D

Partners: BT, Japanese telcos, financial institutions, EuroQCI consortia

Largest deployed quantum network on Earth; state-sovereign program with multi-decade continuity.

1. 2016Micius launch
2. 2017Beijing-Shanghai 2,000km trunk operational
3. 20224,600km integrated space-ground network
4. 2025Jinan-1 microsatellite multi-ground-station demo; 12,900km China-South Africa link
5. 2026~12,000km / 145 nodes / 80 cities / 17 provinces operational
6. 2026-30Continued buildout under 15th Five-Year Plan

Partners: PLA, Chinese state banks, State Grid

Funded under Digital Europe + Horizon; NOSTRADAMUS certification path at JRC Ispra.

1. 2023-25Phase 1: national networks, industrial building blocks
2. 2026SEEWQCI cross-border launch (Feb); NOSTRADAMUS operational at JRC Ispra
3. 2026Eagle-1 satellite launch (target late 2026)
4. 2030+Integrated EU operational capability

Partners: EU Member States, EU institutions, defense and diplomatic comms

Three-phase 60-month program with demonstrated first-year hackathon milestone.

1. 2024Program start; USC ISI ($18M), Leidos ($8.57M) awards
2. 2025First functioning quantum-augmented network at 10-month hackathon
3. 2028-29Field-deployable hybrid network architecture (end of 5-yr program)

Partners: USC ISI, Leidos, downstream commercial telcos

MOU rather than binding contract; Cisco networking incumbency + Atom roadmap is credible.

1. 2026MOU signed March 25
2. 2026-27Joint evaluation; compiler integration; QPU-to-network interface spec
3. 2028+Demonstrated multi-QPU distributed workload

Partners: Cisco, Atom Computing, eventually enterprise/HPC operators

1. 2024
   FIPS 203 (ML-KEM), 204 (ML-DSA), 205 (SLH-DSA) finalizedstandards live
2. 2025
   HQC selected as 5th algorithm (code-based KEM)diversification
3. 2026
   Draft FIPS for HQC; FN-DSA draft pendingstandards
4. 2027
   HQC + FN-DSA finalizationstandards

1. 2022
   NSM-10 directs federal PQC transitionpolicy
2. 2027
   All new NSS acquisitions must be CNSA 2.0 compliant (HARD DEADLINE)mandate begins
3. 2030
   All deployed NSS software/firmware must use CNSA 2.0 signaturesenforcement
4. 2031
   Full CNSA 2.0 enforcement across NSS cryptographic implementationsenforcement
5. 2035
   Full migration target for all NSScompletion

1. 2025
   EO 14306 (Jun 6) — amends EO 14144, directs CISA to publish PQC product-categories listpolicy
2. 2026
   CISA Product Categories List published Jan 23 (delayed from Dec 2025)mandate begins
3. 2026+
   Updates to "Widely Available" vs "Transitioning" tiers periodicallyongoing

1. 2026
   September 21 — all FIPS 140-2 certificates move to HistoricalHARD DEADLINE
2. 2026+
   Only FIPS 140-3 validations support new federal acquisitionsongoing

1. 2024
   Commission Recommendation published (April)policy
2. 2025
   NIS Cooperation Group publishes Part 1 of Roadmap (June)guidance
3. 2026
   Milestone 1 (Dec 31): cryptographic inventories completediscovery
4. 2030
   Milestone 2 (Dec 31): PQC transition for all high-risk use caseshigh-risk migration
5. 2035
   Milestone 3 (Dec 31): PQC transition for medium-risk use casesbroad migration

1. 2028
   Phase 1 (by): Discover cryptographic estate, build migration plandiscovery
2. 2028-31
   Phase 2: Execute high-priority upgradesmigration
3. 2031-35
   Phase 3: Complete migration across systems, services, productscompletion

1. 2025
   ITSM.40.001 published (June 23)policy
2. 2026
   April 1: All new digital-component contracts must include PQC procurement clausesHARD DEADLINE
3. 2026
   April: Initial departmental migration plans due; annual reporting beginsplanning
4. 2031
   High-priority systems completemigration
5. 2035
   Full GoC migration completecompletion

1. 2025
   METI cyber-industry policy package (Mar); SBOM joint framework (Sep)policy
2. 2026
   PQShield ML-KEM evaluation for CRYPTREC (Apr); ML-KEM expected on CRYPTREC liststandards
3. 2027
   Formal national PQC roadmap expected from NCO (May)planning
4. 2035
   Government PQC transition targetcompletion

1. 2010s
   SM2 (ECC), SM3 (hash), SM4 (block) standardized — GB/T 32907-2016in force
2. 2026
   15th Five-Year Plan elevates quantum to #1 of seven "future industries"policy
3. 2026-30
   No public PQC algorithm replacing SM-suite; parallel QKD + research pathunclear