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Vol. III·Cohort Profile·RGTI
NASDAQ: RGTI·Berkeley, CA, USA·Founded 2013·Public
Boulder · Colorado
Analyst note · Superconducting

Rigetti Computing Superconducting

Cash-rich superconducting modular-chiplet bet, but revenue is shrinking and competing directly with IBM at a fraction of the scale.

Cash-rich superconducting modular-chiplet bet, but revenue is shrinking and competing directly with IBM at a fraction of the scale.

— Ledger Desk · analyst thesis

Bull case

▲ upside

108-qubit Cepheus-1 modular chiplet architecture is the most credible path to scale for superconducting QC outside IBM/Google. $569M cash provides 2.5-4 years runway through technical milestones. C-DAC India deal ($8.4M) and DARPA QBI Stage B participation give credibility. Available on AWS Braket, Azure Quantum, and qBraid.

Bear case

▼ downside

Revenue actually declined from $10.8M (2024) to $7.1M (2025) — wrong direction. ~900× revenue multiple is among the most extreme in tech. Quarterly revenue is too lumpy and government-dependent for institutional ownership. Faces direct competition from IBM Heron R2 on the same architecture without IBM's scale, fab access, or balance sheet.

Ledger Score · Rigetti Computing

The Ledger reads sceptical

Public pure-play with $590M cash and the cleanest negative differential signal in the sector — DARPA QBI Stage A only.

42
/ 100

Public pure-play with $590M cash and the cleanest negative differential signal in the sector — DARPA QBI Stage A only.

Technology

52

Capital

80

Commercial

18

Government

25

Components are independently scored and weighted. See methodology.

Recent · 4 stories tracked

What we're watching

  1. 01
    finnhub·May 11, 2026Mixed

    Rigetti Q1 Revenue +193% YoY to $4.4M; 108-Qubit Cepheus-1 Now Generally Available

  2. 02
    quantum insider·May 8, 2026Mixed

    Quantinuum Files S-1 Targeting $20B+ IPO Under Ticker QNT

  3. 03
    nvidia·Apr 16, 2026Bullish

    NVIDIA Launches "Ising" Open AI Models for Quantum Calibration; Quantum Stocks Rally

  4. 04
    rigetti ir·Mar 27, 2026Bullish

    Rigetti Commits Up to $100M UK Investment Toward 1,000+ Qubit System

A profile is a snapshot of an argument, not a verdict. The Ledger updates the score nightly; the thesis we revisit only when the facts change.

— analyst-note conventions

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