Essays
Long-form frameworks for the quantum sector.
One signed essay each month. Frameworks I use to evaluate companies, deep dives on specific milestones, and commentary on cycles that move money. Opinionated, sourced, and updated when the underlying picture changes.
The DOE 2028 RFI is the most important quantum document of 2026
An RFI is not a contract — it is something more durable: a procurement spec that credentials a narrow field. Two vendors. Maybe three. Other roadmaps now lose the federal-procurement narrative that has been supporting their valuations.
The most important quantum procurement signal of the year, with a date attached and a comp spec already written.
The cohort sold off on a clean reporting cycle. Here is why.
Q1 2026 was the strongest collective reporting season the public quantum pure-plays have ever delivered. Every name closed lower. This is not noise. It is the beginning of multiple compression in a cohort whose valuations have been priced for execution that hasn't happened.
When the strongest reporting cycle yet fails to lift the cohort, valuation is the problem.
Reading Quantinuum's S-1
Six numbers that matter, four that don't, and where the IPO actually prices. The closest reading we have produced of any S-1 to date.
The closest reading we have produced of any S-1 to date.
How to think about quantum computing as an investor
A framework for separating physics from financials, distinguishing utility from supremacy, and using DARPA to discount marketing budgets.
The piece I wish existed when I started looking at this sector.