The Earnings Desk.

Every public quantum-exposed earnings call, read in full and distilled to what changed.

Why this exists

Every quarter, six public companies with material quantum exposure report. The transcripts run thousands of words each. Almost no equity analyst covers this beat with quantum-specific context. So we read them all — and distill each call within 48 hours into the part that actually moves the model.

Each entry below: headline metric, key quotes from named speakers, what changed in our read of the company, and — most importantly — the sector read-through for the rest of the cohort. The wedge nobody else is filling for quantum.

Coming up

IONQQ2 20262026-08-06
RGTIQ2 20262026-08-11
QBTSQ2 20262026-08-07
QUBTQ2 20262026-08-12
HONQ2 20262026-07-30
IBMQ2 20262026-07-22

Most recent distillations · latest 2026-05-13

Q1 2026 reads.

6 calls distilled this season

01
QUBT·Quantum Computing Inc.·Q1 20262026-05-13
Revenue inflecting off near-zero base; multiple still extreme.
Revenue
$3.7M
+9,364% YoY (off near-zero base)
Driven by entropy-product orders + small TFLN chip sales
Net loss
$15.8M
Operating loss narrowed vs Q4
Cash
~$280M
Recent ATM issuance funded balance sheet
Pivot to commercial photonic chip sales is starting to show modest revenue, but $3.7M against ~$2.5B market cap is the cleanest 'narrative-only' valuation in the public cohort. No DARPA QBI participation. Tech score remains the weakest among public names tracked.
What changed in our read
Minor uptick in our commercial score; no other dimension materially changes.
Sector read-through
Reinforces the structural divergence between IONQ/QBTS (real revenue scale, defensible scoring) and QUBT/ARQQ (narrative-only multiples). Investors using the public cohort as a basket should weight the former two heavily and discount the latter two.
Investor relations ↗
02
RGTI·Rigetti Computing·Q1 20262026-05-12
Strong cash position, sequential revenue rebound, but no full-year guidance.
Revenue
$4.4M
+198% sequentially (off Q4 base)
Year-over-year still negative
Net loss
$67.1M
Heavily influenced by warrant-related non-cash items
Cash
$589.8M
ATM facility continuing to fund operations
Guidance
No 2026 full-year revenue guidance issued
Quarter is a sequential improvement off a depressed Q4 2025 base but does not change the structural picture. No 2026 revenue guidance is conspicuous. Stage A elimination from DARPA QBI continues to weigh on the strategic narrative, though management deflected on the call. Balance sheet remains the saving grace — ~$590M cash gives multiple years of runway at current burn.
From the call
“We continue to make progress on our 84-qubit Ankaa-3 system and on our roadmap to 100+ qubit systems. Government contracts remain an important part of our business.”
— Subodh Kulkarni, CEO
What changed in our read
No change to our Ledger Score read — RGTI remains the cleanest public-pure-play to be short relative to the rest of the cohort. ~890x P/S against declining year-over-year revenue is unjustified at this scale.
Sector read-through
Negative read-across for QUBT and ARQQ — both trade at extreme multiples on similarly thin revenue. Reinforces the bull case for IONQ and QBTS as the only public names with genuine revenue scale.
Investor relations ↗
03
QBTS·D-Wave Quantum·Q1 20262026-05-08
Largest revenue beat in the cohort; first US university system sale.
Revenue
$15.0M
+509% YoY
Boosted by Advantage2 system sale to Florida Atlantic University
Net loss
$28.5M
Sequentially narrowing
Cash
$325M
Bolstered by recent ATM and registered direct offerings
Guidance
2026 revenue guidance $80–95M (previous: $70–85M)
Most impressive quarter in the public quantum cohort by growth rate. $20M FAU sale (first US university to own rather than rent a full quantum system) drove the bulk of recognition. Annealing customer wins in operations research / logistics continue to convert. 83% GAAP gross margins make D-Wave the only quantum vendor with a path to operating profitability on current trajectory.
From the call
“FAU's acquisition of Advantage2 signals what we have been saying for years — quantum annealing is a commercial product today, not a future bet. We expect more on-premise system sales through 2026.”
— Alan Baratz, CEO
What changed in our read
Material positive update for D-Wave's commercial score. Annealing thesis is being de-risked by sustained customer adoption. Tech score remains capped (annealing not gate-model), but commercial trajectory is unrivaled in the cohort.
Sector read-through
Annealing is no longer 'about to be obsolete' — system sales suggest a durable niche around optimization workloads. Mixed read-across for gate-model vendors: D-Wave's customers are unlikely to switch to a 50-qubit superconducting machine for combinatorial optimization in the next 2-3 years.
Investor relations ↗
04
IONQ·IonQ·Q1 20262026-05-07
Revenue beat with raised guidance; Oxford Ionics integration on track.
Revenue
$32.5M
+135% YoY
Beat consensus by ~$3M
Net loss
$95.2M
Widened on Oxford Ionics integration costs
Cash
$546M
Down $80M sequentially on acquisition-related cash use
Guidance
2026 full-year revenue raised to $235–250M (from $225–245M)
Cleanest print in the public quantum cohort this quarter. Revenue beat, guidance raised, AQ progression on schedule. Management spent meaningful call time on the Oxford Ionics tuck-in (~$1.075B) and the path to AQ 64 → AQ 96 → AQ 128. Forte Enterprise on-prem deal pipeline reportedly healthy.
From the call
“We continue to see strong demand for quantum compute and on-premise systems. Oxford Ionics integration is on track and accretive to our 2027 roadmap.”
— Niccolo de Masi, CEO
“We are tightening guidance to the higher end of our prior range, reflecting continued momentum in bookings.”
— Thomas Kramer, CFO
What changed in our read
Increases our conviction that IonQ has the most diversified commercial revenue mix in the public cohort. Reinforces commercial score in the Ledger Score; reduces concentration risk weighting.
Sector read-through
Bullish for Quantinuum's IPO — IonQ's $32.5M quarter (with diverse customers) provides a positive read-across to QNT's $30.9M full-year revenue (60% RIKEN-concentrated). RGTI's $4.4M quarter looks even worse by comparison.
Investor relations ↗
05
HON·Honeywell International·Q1 20262026-04-29
Quantinuum filing confirmed on call; partial liquidity for HON shareholders flagged.
Revenue
$10.2B
+4%
Aerospace and Performance Materials drove growth
HON's quarter was largely in line on the core businesses, but the relevant disclosure for Quantum Ledger readers was the explicit confirmation of Quantinuum's S-1 (filed May 8). Vimal Kapur fielded multiple analyst questions on Quantinuum and confirmed the 'gradual reduction' of HON's ~54% stake post-IPO. No special dividend announced. Jefferies estimates ~$7/share of latent HON value tied to Quantinuum.
From the call
“We are pleased with the milestone Quantinuum has reached with its S-1 filing. We will be a long-term shareholder and intend to reduce our stake gradually over time as appropriate.”
— Vimal Kapur, CEO
What changed in our read
Confirms Honeywell as the closest large-cap proxy for QNT exposure pre-IPO. See /companies/honeywell for the deeper writeup.
Sector read-through
QNT pricing in June 2026 will create a discrete mark-to-market event for HON shareholders. If QNT prices at $20B (HON's ~54% stake ≈ $10.8B), the implied per-share value for HON owners is materially positive vs. current consensus.
Investor relations ↗
06
IBM·IBM·Q1 20262026-04-23
Heron processor and Starling 2029 roadmap reaffirmed; quantum revenue not separately disclosed.
Revenue
$14.5B
+1%
Software and Consulting growth offset Infrastructure softness
Quantum is immaterial to IBM's $14.5B quarter, but Arvind Krishna devoted ~2 minutes of prepared remarks to the Heron processor and IBM Quantum Network growth past 350 enterprise members. The Starling 2029 target (200 logical qubits, qLDPC bivariate-bicycle code) was reaffirmed.
From the call
“Our roadmap to Starling in 2029 — 200 error-corrected logical qubits — is on track. The qLDPC architecture we introduced in Nature in 2024 fundamentally changes the qubit-overhead math for fault-tolerance.”
— Arvind Krishna, CEO
What changed in our read
Modest positive for IBM's tech score — Starling 2029 timeline maintained, qLDPC story credible.
Sector read-through
Bullish for the FTQC 2029 cohort thesis (IBM, Quantinuum, Xanadu all targeting 2029). Three independent paths converging on the same year strengthens the broader 2030 utility-scale narrative.
Investor relations ↗

How these are produced

Within 48 hours of each call, the transcript is read in full and key figures cross-checked against the 10-Q or 8-K. Headline metrics, named quotes, what-changed, and the sector read-through are published as one entry. We don't paraphrase numbers; we cite them.

Feeds the Ledger Score

Each call updates the relevant company's commercial subscore (revenue, growth, customer concentration) and where material, the capital subscore (cash, guidance). The monthly composite refresh incorporates these.

What we don't do

We don't price target, we don't rate (buy/hold/sell), and we don't front-run earnings with predictions. The distillation is descriptive after the fact. The opinion is in the read-through column, and you can disagree productively.

2024 → 2036 · sector revenue landscape

From the quarter to the decade

The calls above tell you what each company billed last quarter. The chart below extends the same series out to 2036 with three regime breaks that re-rate the whole curve.

2029 · regime break

Logical-qubit milestone window

IBM Starling and Quantinuum Apollo both target FTQC delivery this year; one hit unlocks the commercial inflection.

2030 · regime break

NISQ era closes (per BCG framework)

Broad quantum advantage phase begins; revenue mix shifts from government-backed to commercial cloud.

2033 · regime break

DARPA utility-scale verification deadline

Stage C performers must demonstrate industrially useful operation. Independent-buyer validation drives next capital cycle.

Full forecast methodology ›·Central estimate; bands span ±35% to 10-yr horizon