Quantum Ledger
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Vol. III·Cohort Profile·IBM
NYSE: IBM·Armonk, NY, USA·Founded 1911·Public
Boulder · Colorado
Analyst note · Superconducting

IBM (Quantum) Superconducting

Sets the field's calendar — largest installed base, most credible roadmap (Heron → Nighthawk → Loon → Kookaburra → Starling).

Sets the field's calendar — largest installed base, most credible roadmap (Heron → Nighthawk → Loon → Kookaburra → Starling).

— Ledger Desk · analyst thesis

Bull case

▲ upside

Heron R2 (156Q) and Nighthawk (120Q, degree-4 connectivity) now in general availability. HSBC commercial advantage paper (34% accuracy lift) is the most credible enterprise validation event in the sector. Starling targets 200 logical qubits / 100M ops by 2029. Quantum revenue cumulative $1B since 2017 — implies $200-250M annualized run-rate. Largest enterprise quantum ecosystem via IBM Quantum Network.

Bear case

▼ downside

Quantum not separately broken out in IBM financials — investors can't cleanly value the asset. Heavy competition from Google Willow on QEC narrative. Roadmap depends on still-unproven qLDPC code C-couplers (Loon tested 2025). Operating in a business where dollar value of a "qubit" is still aspirational vs hyperscaler economics.

Ledger Score · IBM (Quantum)

The Ledger reads high conviction

Most credible commercial FTQC roadmap in the world (Starling 2029, 200 logical qubits via qLDPC); quantum is immaterial to IBM share price.

85
/ 100

Most credible commercial FTQC roadmap in the world (Starling 2029, 200 logical qubits via qLDPC); quantum is immaterial to IBM share price.

Technology

88

Capital

95

Commercial

86

Government

70

Components are independently scored and weighted. See methodology.

Recent · 4 stories tracked

What we're watching

  1. 01
    quantum insider·Apr 30, 2026Bullish

    IBM's Krishna Predicts First Real-World Quantum Advantage in 2026

  2. 02
    ibm newsroom·Apr 29, 2026Bullish

    IBM + MIT Launch Computing Research Lab Spanning AI and Quantum

  3. 03
    ibm blog·Nov 12, 2025Bullish

    IBM Unveils Nighthawk + Loon + Kookaburra Roadmap; 10× QEC Decoder Speedup

  4. 04
    darpa·Nov 11, 2025Bullish

    DARPA QBI Stage B: 11 Companies Advance Through Independent Benchmark Gate

A profile is a snapshot of an argument, not a verdict. The Ledger updates the score nightly; the thesis we revisit only when the facts change.

— analyst-note conventions

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