Analyst note · Cat qubit
Alice & Bob Cat qubit
Cat-qubit pioneer claiming 100× hardware-efficiency thesis; Boson 4 chip achieved >7-minute bit-flip lifetime (world record).
Cat-qubit pioneer claiming 100× hardware-efficiency thesis; Boson 4 chip achieved >7-minute bit-flip lifetime (world record).
— Ledger Desk · analyst thesis
Bull case
▲ upsideCat qubit physics is real and Amazon validated the approach by adopting it for Ocelot — A&B has a 4-year head start. Boson 4 hosted on Google Cloud and AWS Marketplace. Selected for France's €500M PROQCIMA program. French sovereign support.
Bear case
▼ downsideA single end-to-end logical qubit demonstration has not yet shipped; the leap from single-cat-qubit lifetime records to FTQC requires breakthroughs that haven't been published. 2030 fault-tolerant target gives IBM/Google/Quantinuum a multi-year lead.
Ledger Score · Alice & Bob
The Ledger reads sceptical
Highest-conviction Western bet on bosonic cat-qubit codes; not advanced to QBI Stage B in November 2025.
Highest-conviction Western bet on bosonic cat-qubit codes; not advanced to QBI Stage B in November 2025.
Technology
72
Capital
62
Commercial
22
Government
28
Components are independently scored and weighted. See methodology.
A profile is a snapshot of an argument, not a verdict. The Ledger updates the score nightly; the thesis we revisit only when the facts change.
— analyst-note conventions