Analyst note · Silicon spin
Diraq Silicon spin
Silicon-spin frontrunner — industrial-CMOS-compatible qubits at >99% two-qubit fidelity; the manufacturing-thesis dark horse.
Silicon-spin frontrunner — industrial-CMOS-compatible qubits at >99% two-qubit fidelity; the manufacturing-thesis dark horse.
— Ledger Desk · analyst thesis
Bull case
▲ upsideDiraq + imec demonstrated industrially fabricated silicon quantum dots with >99% two-qubit fidelity and >99.9% SPAM (Nature, Sept 2025). Bell inequality violation in gate-defined quantum dots (April 2025). DARPA QBI Stage B. Leverages global CMOS foundry capacity — theoretically the only path to truly billion-qubit chips. Series B planned later 2026.
Bear case
▼ downsideQubit counts still in low dozens — far behind incumbents in system-scale demonstrations. Utility-scale timeline is 2030+. Near-term value is the manufacturing thesis, which doesn't monetize without scale.
Ledger Score · Diraq
The Ledger reads sceptical
The thesis bet that scalable quantum runs through a CMOS fab, not a custom one; Stage B with imec partnership.
The thesis bet that scalable quantum runs through a CMOS fab, not a custom one; Stage B with imec partnership.
Technology
68
Capital
50
Commercial
18
Government
80
Components are independently scored and weighted. See methodology.
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A profile is a snapshot of an argument, not a verdict. The Ledger updates the score nightly; the thesis we revisit only when the facts change.
— analyst-note conventions