Analyst note · Silicon spin
Silicon Quantum Computing Silicon spin
Atom-by-atom precision-placed donor qubits in silicon via STM lithography — Michelle Simmons team, 20-year head start on the modality.
Atom-by-atom precision-placed donor qubits in silicon via STM lithography — Michelle Simmons team, 20-year head start on the modality.
— Ledger Desk · analyst thesis
Bull case
▲ upsideDonor-atom silicon is the only modality that could leverage existing CMOS fab investment at trillion-dollar scale. World-record fidelities at the qubit level. DARPA QBI Stage B selection. Australian sovereign support.
Bear case
▼ downsideSTM atom placement is fundamentally not a high-volume manufacturing process; SQC must invent fab equipment as well as the qubit. Near-term qubit counts very small (11). Long-cycle roadmap.
Ledger Score · Silicon Quantum Computing
The Ledger reads sceptical
The atomic-precision donor science bet — Michelle Simmons's research moat; Stage B with smaller cap table.
The atomic-precision donor science bet — Michelle Simmons's research moat; Stage B with smaller cap table.
Technology
60
Capital
45
Commercial
15
Government
75
Components are independently scored and weighted. See methodology.
A profile is a snapshot of an argument, not a verdict. The Ledger updates the score nightly; the thesis we revisit only when the facts change.
— analyst-note conventions